$BLK · BlackRock, Inc.

Financials / Asset ManagementSPX100

EPS 0–0

DIR 0–0

MAE —

Latest call · 2026-10-13

⏳ Awaiting result · earnings 2026-10-14 BMO

The call

EPS

$14.75

BEAT· +3.1% vs street

Direction

🟡 FLAT

1d +0.5% · 3d +1.0%

Confidence

MEDIUM

Positioning: hype_neutral

Spot at call

$1073.01

as of 2026-10-13

Head-to-head · Claude vs the Street vs reality

	Claude	Street	Actual
EPS	$14.75	$14.30	⏳ pending
Revenue	$7.60B	$7.45B	—
Direction (1d)	🟡 FLAT	🟢 UP 15B · 3H · 0S	—
1d move	+0.5%	—	—
3d move	+1.0%	—	—

Thesis

BLK sits outside today's bank-wall sell-the-news regime — fee-based model, not NII-levered, and positioning is flat-YTD so no crowded-long to unwind. HPS/GIP private-markets fee-rate accretion plus mechanical AUM markup from Q3 equity rally skew to a clean beat.

What would flip it

Private-markets fee guide underwhelms and the integration-accretion thesis gets re-cut.

💡 Modest long into print — asymmetry is better than banks, but SPX beta and sellside already max-constructive cap upside to ~1%.

The market's narrative

AUM re-rating story — iShares + private markets (GIP/HPS acquisitions anniversarying) + Aladdin tech fees. Expected revenue growth +14% YoY. Flat YTD and 1mo = not crowded-long into print. Q2 printed $13.91 vs $12.69, a 9.6% beat — pattern of consistent walkup beats.

Where the Street may be wrong

Private markets fee rate — HPS/GIP integration drops incremental 50-70bps fee rate vs. ETF; still being modeled at blended rate
Base fee effective-rate expansion — equity mix within iShares shifting to higher-fee thematic/active ETFs
Tech services (Aladdin + eFront) — 15%+ organic growth likely vs. 12% in base model; Preqin data business ramping

Peer read: Asset managers decouple from banks post-print — fee-based model vs. NII-sensitive. Not in today's bank-wall sell-the-news bucket. However BLK trades with S&P500 beta, and SPX wobble into print caps upside. Flat YTD = positioning not stretched = cleaner path to UP on a clean beat vs. BAC/MS.

Reasoning

4-quarter streak of 8-10% EPS beats = structurally conservative sellside; $14.75 vs $14.30 is base-case not aggressive
AUM markup from Q3 equity rally alone adds ~$300B passive AUM = mechanical fee tailwind
RSI 47.7 and flat-YTD = no crowded-long unwind risk, unlike bank peers
Strong-buy 1.29/5 rating + $1324 PT = sellside positioned, but incremental catalyst from private-markets guide likely
Not in bank-wall peer-read regime; different investor base reduces sell-the-news probability

Risks to the call

Private-markets fee-rate guide underwhelms = HPS/GIP accretion thesis gets re-cut → -2%
ETF industry flow data soft in Sept-Oct could temper iShares optimism → -1%