Claude vs the Street
Every call made on an NDX100 or SPX100 name, scored head-to-head on EPS estimate, post-earnings direction, and magnitude. The Street gets consensus EPS + rating mix; Claude gets an independent analyst estimate + a direction call. Winner = closer to actual.
Claude
7 EPS
· 4 DIR
avg magnitude error +7.0%
· 🎯 2 spot-on
vs
The Street
4 EPS
· 2 DIR
0 EPS ties · 10 DIR ties
Last 10 scored:
? ? ? ? ? C = S = =
(C = Claude · S = Street · = tie)
21calls scored
99names covered
169in universe
Latest scored
$HD · The Home Depot, Inc. 2026-08-17
EPS
actual —
us $4.82 (off $—)
Street $4.76 (off $—)
Direction
us
🟢 UP
+1.8%
actual
🟢 UP
+0.5%
💡 Modest beat-and-hold. Long into the print, keep the size small — the FY guide is a coin-flip.
Recent calls
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$USB U.S. Bancorp 2026-10-14EPS Claude $1.34 Street $1.32 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +0.8% / +1.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Mild oversold bounce setup. Small long into the print, size down.
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$SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation 2026-10-14EPS Claude $1.70 Street $1.66 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +1.8% / +3.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Oversold bounce setup. Long into the print, trim into any mid-session strength.
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$MS Morgan Stanley 2026-10-13EPS Claude $3.05 Street $2.94 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🔴 DOWN -0.5% / -1.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Fade modestly — oversold cushion caps downside but hype_high regime caps upside; expect flat-to-down 0.5% drift.
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$FAST Fastenal Company 2026-10-13EPS Claude $0.35 Street $0.34 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🔴 DOWN -2.0% / -3.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Lean fade — valuation at ~34x fwd and sellside PT below spot leave no margin for error; expect -1.5 to -2% drift on a modest beat.
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$BLK BlackRock, Inc. 2026-10-13EPS Claude $14.75 Street $14.30 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟡 FLAT +0.5% / +1.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Modest long into print — asymmetry is better than banks, but SPX beta and sellside already max-constructive cap upside to ~1%.
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$BAC Bank of America Corporation 2026-10-13EPS Claude $1.14 Street $1.10 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🔴 DOWN -0.8% / -1.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Fade strength into the print; tactical short carry asymmetry favors -1% drift over a 24-hour window.
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$ASML ASML Holding N.V. 2026-10-13EPS Claude $11.05 Street $10.76 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +2.2% / +3.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Semi-cap sits outside today's bank-wall sell-the-news regime — bias long into the print, size for a 2% pop.
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$WFC Wells Fargo & Company 2026-10-12EPS Claude $1.90 Street $1.84 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +2.0% / +3.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Long into print, 3-day hold through earnings-day momentum. Cleaner setup than JPM, less squeeze than GS.
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$UNH UnitedHealth Group 2026-10-12EPS Claude $4.22 Street $4.12 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +2.5% / +4.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Long into print, trim half on the open spike. Guide raise is the 3-day hold catalyst.
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$JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026-10-12EPS Claude $5.98 Street $5.93 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +1.5% / +2.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Clean beat, muted pop. Long into print, trim into strength above $340.
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$JNJ Johnson & Johnson 2026-10-12EPS Claude $2.58 Street $2.54 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +0.8% / +1.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Low-conviction defensive long. Trade the raise, not the headline.
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$GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. 2026-10-12EPS Claude $14.80 Street $12.90 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +5.0% / +7.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Classic beat-and-squeeze. Long into the print; this is the asymmetric trade of the wall.
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$C Citigroup Inc. 2026-10-12EPS Claude $2.70 Street $2.65 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +1.0% / +2.0% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Thin edge, high optionality. Small long into print, size up or cut on the Banamex language in the Fraser prepared remarks.
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$PEP PepsiCo, Inc. 2026-10-07EPS Claude $2.34 Street $2.30 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🟢 UP +1.8% / +2.8% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Long into the print, washed-out beat-and-squeeze geometry. Target +1 to +3% 1d, +2 to +4% 3d. Trim half any pop above $127; hold the rest for the Elliott catalyst option.
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$NKE NIKE, Inc. 2026-10-01EPS Claude $0.43 Street $0.44 Actual ⏳DIR Claude 🔴 DOWN -2.0% / -3.5% 3d Actual ⏳ awaiting💡 Short-biased into the print, but low conviction — options are pricing 8.3% both ways and the setup rhymes with ACN's extreme-washed-out trap. Tight stop above $37; cover into any post-print pop above $34.
By sector
| Sector | Calls | Claude EPS | Street EPS | Claude DIR | Street DIR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncategorized | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Autos / AI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Financials / Payments | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Energy / Oilfield Services | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tech / Semis (IDM + Foundry) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Communication Services / Cable | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Healthcare / Biotech | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tech / Software (AI/Data) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Energy / E&P (Permian) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Utilities / Regulated Electric | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tech / Semis (AI accelerators) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tech / Crypto-leveraged equity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharma / Oncology + Vaccines | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Media / Streaming / Parks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Consumer / Mobility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |