$WFC · Wells Fargo & Company
Latest call · 2026-10-12
The call
Head-to-head · Claude vs the Street vs reality
| Claude | Street | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.90 | $1.84 | ⏳ pending |
| Revenue | $22.40B | $22.15B | — |
| Direction (1d) | 🟢 UP |
🟢 UP
18B · 8H · 0S
|
— |
| 1d move | +2.0% | — | — |
| 3d move | +3.0% | — | — |
Thesis
Post-asset-cap WFC is the cleanest 'show-me' setup of the wall — $50B FY26 NII guide, deposit growth already running +10% YoY, and the stock down 10.6% YTD into a hype_neutral print. We see $1.90 EPS vs Street $1.84; NII tops guide if deposit-cost discipline holds.
What would flip it
A sequential NIM step-down past the 1bp guided compression breaks the thesis.
The market's narrative
Post-asset-cap WFC — the June 2025 removal of the $1.95T cap unleashes balance-sheet growth. Street models FY26 NII $50B / 4-6% loan+deposit growth. Stock is down -10.65% YTD into the print but 25.5% below the $101 price target. Setup: 'show-me' quarter where NII trajectory + fee acceleration prove the growth story.
Where the Street may be wrong
- Deposit cost discipline — Q2 shows interest-bearing commercial deposits +10% YoY, but noninterest-bearing stabilization is the actual earnings surprise lever (every 10bp improvement = $45M quarterly)
- Investment Banking fee acceleration — the fee-business build-out (ex Scharf's 2024 strategy) is at the inflection point where IB captures its share of the Q3 M&A wave
- Mortgage origination run-rate — rate backdrop + the asset-cap-release-fueled wholesale push drives optional upside to the fee line
Peer read: Nothing printed yet. Street enters WFC with no fresh anchor — pricing reflects 'wait and see' on NII delivery versus the $50B FY26 guide.
Reasoning
- Strong-Buy consensus (15 strong buy, 3 buy, 8 hold, 0 sell) + composite 1.72 — bullish base but not stretched. Short float 0.81% confirms not crowded, hype_neutral classification.
- Finviz tech: RSI 48.75 neutral, SMA20 +0.29%, SMA50 -2.82%, SMA200 -1.35% — stock has digested the asset-cap-removal pop and is coiled.
- Street $1.84 EPS / $22.15B rev reflects moderate beat optionality. NII $12.63B est (+5.7% YoY) is the key print line — any NII upside drives the stock.
- My estimate $1.90 EPS / $22.4B rev reflects deposit-cost tailwind + fee-business acceleration layered on consensus NII.
- Call UP +2.0% 1d, +3.0% 3d MEDIUM conf — hype_neutral beat template, cleaner path than JPM (lower bar) but less squeeze fuel than GS.
Risks to the call
- NIM compression worse than guided (deposit mix shift to CDs) — $12.4B NII print would be a flat-day
- Credit-loss provision tick-up on commercial real estate — the Scharf-era legacy book still has runway for negative surprise