$JPM · JPMorgan Chase & Co.
EPS
0–0
DIR
0–0
MAE
—
Latest call · 2026-10-12
The call
EPS
$5.98
BEAT· +0.8% vs street
Direction
🟢 UP
1d +1.5% · 3d +2.5%
Confidence
MEDIUM
Positioning: hype_high
Spot at call
$334.29
as of 2026-10-12
Head-to-head · Claude vs the Street vs reality
| Claude | Street | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.98 | $5.93 | ⏳ pending |
| Revenue | $51.60B | $51.19B | — |
| Direction (1d) | 🟢 UP |
🟢 UP
15B · 10H · 2S
|
— |
| 1d move | +1.5% | — | — |
| 3d move | +2.5% | — | — |
Thesis
JPM opens the Q3 bank wall with a bar already walked up 8.4% in 90 days — $5.93 EPS / $26.96B NII is hype_high territory. FICC desks got a tailwind from September rates vol and card charge-offs appear to be rolling over at Discover/COF; we see a slim beat ($5.98 / $51.6B).
What would flip it
NII guide-down or FY27 reserve-build commentary flips this to sell-the-news.
💡 Clean beat, muted pop. Long into print, trim into strength above $340.
The market's narrative
Fortress-balance-sheet premium bank with elevated NII expectations ($26.96B Street vs $26.1B YoY) going into FY27 Dimon-succession transition. Street has walked EPS up 8.4% in 90d to $5.93 — bar is set.
Where the Street may be wrong
- FICC trading momentum from Q2 ($5.4B) likely sustained — rates vol + credit spreads widened in Sep, same tape that pushed JPM FICC +11% YoY last quarter
- Card losses stabilizing — consumer-credit cycle inflection point already visible in Discover/Capital One monthlies; buy-side underweighting the net charge-off peak call
- Buyback cadence post-Dimon-succession commentary could surprise — board authorizations suggest a $5B+ Q3 pace
Peer read: No bank peer has printed yet — JPM opens the Q3 wall. Fed-cut-trade-fatigued setup where NIM guidance matters more than headline beat.
Reasoning
- Street consensus $5.93 EPS reflects +17% YoY growth with NII at $26.96B — a bar that's been walked UP 90d (+8.4%), classic hype_high dynamic.
- Finviz tech: RSI 40.5 (lower-neutral), -1.3% SMA20, -4.5% SMA50 — stock has drifted into print with low relative volume (0.49). Modest consolidation off the $366.50 52w high.
- Composite analyst rec 2.03 (Buy) with crowded-long positioning (short float just 0.91%) — any NII miss or FY27 guide-shy wording is a sell-the-news trigger.
- FICC + card charge-offs remain the two biggest beat sources; macro Sep rates vol was favorable for FICC desks per peer-flow commentary.
- Base case: $5.98 EPS / $51.6B rev, slim beat + reassuring NII guide → UP +1.5% 1d. Hype_high moderate-beat template caps magnitude.
Risks to the call
- NII guide-down for FY27 or any Dimon-succession reserve-cushion commentary → sell-the-news to -2 to -3%
- Trading revenue miss (equities-weak-tape read) could override NII strength