$DUK · Duke Energy

Thesis

Regulated-utility play on the AI data-center power-demand thesis. $103B 2026-2030 capex plan is the largest fully-regulated buildout in the industry, anchored on 4.5 GW already signed (Microsoft, Compass) and 9 GW late-stage pipeline. BMO Capital just lifted PT to $143 — analyst upgrade cycle is starting.

What would flip it

North Carolina rate-case slip on the call mutes the data-center growth narrative for a quarter.

The market's narrative

Largest fully-regulated capex plan in the U.S. utility space ($103B 2026-2030, +18% over prior plan) anchored on AI data-center load growth in the Carolinas — BMO Capital just took PT to $143, the analyst upgrade cycle has begun.

Where the Street may be wrong

• 6 GW data-center demand pipeline modeled at only 75% take-rate — every additional 100 bps of take-rate is a discrete EPS callout vs the Q1 frame.
• 4.5 GW already secured under electric service agreements (Microsoft + Compass anchors) + 9 GW late-stage = 2028 EPS inflection is more visible than Street currently models in DCF terminal.

Peer read: CAT +10% on 4/30 — AI-data-center power-demand template (record $63B backlog +79% YoY) — DUK is the regulated-utility version of that thesis

Reasoning

• FY26 guide $6.70 (+6.2% YoY) supported by Q1 cost discipline + Carolinas rate-case progress.
• $103B capex plan is the framework — Q1 commentary on data-center MW signed YTD is the key driver line.
• BMO Capital PT raise to $143 ahead of print = upgrade-cycle starter; one peer follow-on lifts +1-2% additional.
• RSI 45 + price $127 sits 2.7% above 50EMA $123.74 = constructive technical, room to run before overbought.
• 3.4% dividend yield + low-beta utility = downside cushion if AI commentary lands flat.