$MELI · MercadoLibre
EPS
0–0
DIR
0–0
MAE
—
Latest call · 2026-08-05
The call
EPS
$9.35
BEAT· +4.6% vs street
Direction
🟢 UP
1d +2.5% · 3d +3.5%
Confidence
MEDIUM
Positioning: hype_neutral
Spot at call
$1914.77
as of 2026-08-05
Head-to-head · Claude vs the Street vs reality
| Claude | Street | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $9.35 | $8.94 | ⏳ pending |
| Revenue | $6.28B | $6.20B | — |
| Direction (1d) | 🟢 UP |
🟢 UP
22B · 5H · 1S
|
— |
| 1d move | +2.5% | — | — |
| 3d move | +3.5% | — | — |
Thesis
LatAm e-com + fintech compounder with a real narrative gap: Street is still modeling the Q1 FX drag as steady-state, but the Mercado Pago take-rate expansion + fulfilled-by-MELI logistics leverage should push op margin ~150bps ahead of consensus.
What would flip it
An Argentina peso re-devaluation in the outlook caps the pop at flat.
💡 Clean beat + narrative-gap unlock. Long into the print, trim into strength.
The market's narrative
LatAm e-com + fintech compounder; Street modeling ~35% rev growth ex-FX with margin recovery second half.
Where the Street may be wrong
- Mercado Pago credit book take-rate expanding faster than Street models — Q1 flagged ~200bps NIM improvement on the SME book that Street has not yet flowed through to Q2.
- Argentina ARS FX headwind is peaking, not accelerating; peso-devaluation contribution to reported growth flips positive by year-end — narrative anchoring on stale 1H FX drag.
- Logistics leverage: fulfilled-by-MELI penetration passed 55% in Q1 (from 48% Q4 2025), a step that historically drops 150-200bps to gross margin the quarter after.
Peer read: SEA (Shopee LatAm proxy) reported +32% GMV growth 8/4 with take-rate expansion — direct positive read to MELI commerce.
Reasoning
- FY guide revision direction: MELI does not formally guide but management commentary is our base-case RAISE via callout on take-rate + logistics leverage; that's the 1d driver.
- EPS h2h: our $9.35 vs Street $8.94 (+4.6%) — credit book + logistics margin leg pushes op leverage higher than Street models.
- Technicals: spot $1915 sits ~2% above 50/200 EMA ($1874) — trend intact but no extension; not a hype_high setup, still buyable into strength.
- PT runway 15.7% ($2215 avg PT vs $1915 spot) = healthy — not the AVGO no-runway trap.
- Peer-read gate positive: SEA commerce prints yesterday were clean; LatAm consumer holding despite FX vol.
Risks to the call
- ARS devaluation acceleration into Q3 forces a currency reset in the outlook — capped magnitude at +1%.
- Mercado Crédito NPL uptick disclosed alongside book growth would spook analysts on the fintech leg.