$TTWO · Take-Two Interactive
EPS
0–0
DIR
0–0
MAE
—
Latest call · 2026-08-06
The call
EPS
$-0.18
BEAT· +14.3% vs street
Direction
🟢 UP
1d +2.5% · 3d +3.5%
Confidence
MEDIUM
Positioning: hype_high
Spot at call
$260.63
as of 2026-08-06
Head-to-head · Claude vs the Street vs reality
| Claude | Street | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.18 | $-0.21 | ⏳ pending |
| Revenue | $1.48B | $1.36B | — |
| Direction (1d) | 🟢 UP |
🟢 UP
25B · 1H · 1S
|
— |
| 1d move | +2.5% | — | — |
| 3d move | +3.5% | — | — |
Thesis
3 months from the biggest gaming launch in history and sell-side is 25 Buy / 3 Outperform / 1 Hold / 1 Underperform — near-unanimous conviction. Company self-guided $1.45-1.50B rev vs Street $1.36B, so the mechanical beat is baked in; the real 1d driver is any GTA VI marketing / pre-order update. Wedbush already flagged the pre-print derisk.
What would flip it
Any GTA VI delay hint (would be the 5th) triggers a -8-15% air pocket.
💡 Coiled-spring 3 months from GTA VI. Long into the print, tight stop on any delay language.
The market's narrative
3 months from Nov 19 GTA VI launch — the largest catalyst in gaming history — with sell-side essentially unanimously bullish (25 Buy / 3 Outperform / 1 Hold / 1 Underperform).
Where the Street may be wrong
- Wedbush pre-print note: results should hit HIGHER END of company guide ($1.45-1.50B rev, -$0.15 to -$0.23 EPS) — the pre-print de-risk signal, similar to UBER 8/4 setup.
- Company guidance $1.45-1.50B rev sits ABOVE Street $1.36B — Street is modeling BELOW the company itself, which is unusual and creates a mechanical beat on rev even if company hits the low end.
- Any GTA VI marketing spend acceleration or fresh pre-order data is the 1d driver — not the FQ1 print itself. BofA already raised FY28 GTA Online bookings +$900M to $2.2B on stronger pre-order demand.
Peer read: EA reported OK last week (sports title strength); RBLX AI-monetization commentary broadly positive gaming setup.
Reasoning
- FY guide direction: base case RAISE on FY27 bookings from GTA VI pre-order data + Zynga (Match Factory!) mobile strength; management typically sandbag-then-raise cadence.
- EPS h2h: our -$0.18 vs Street -$0.21 (14.3% smaller loss) — modeling edge on lower marketing spend timing (GTA VI campaign starts Sep not Aug).
- Rev h2h: our $1.48B vs Street $1.36B (+8.8% above) but this is really about aligning to company guide midpoint $1.475B — not a big edge, just correct baseline.
- Technicals: recent spot ~$260 vs 52wk high $264 = at range top but not extended (name has been consolidating). Rating 25 Buy / 3 Outperform on 30 covering = 93% Buy — unanimous conviction.
- Positioning: spot $260 vs avg PT $281 = 8% runway; BofA bull case $368 (+41%). Not the AVGO-at-PT trap; still runway.
Risks to the call
- Any GTA VI DELAY hint (5th delay would be catastrophic) → -8-15% air pocket; this is the tail risk that the hype_high setup magnifies.
- Zynga mobile decel or Match Factory! monetization softness → -3-5% shallow fade if standalone-Zynga narrative gets marked down.