$UBER · Uber Technologies

Thesis

Uber heads into the print with the AV-fear washed out (spot 45% below Street price target, 86% Buy rating mix) and two positive-narrative shocks lined up: Advertising crossing $1.5B annualized and Waymo partnership expansion signaling. LYFT beat + guided up two sessions ago; DASH beat on delivery — clean peer reads for both Uber segments. Gross Bookings likely land at ceiling of guide.

What would flip it

GB at low end of guide + vague Waymo messaging revives the AV-disintermediation fear, -3 to -5%.

The market's narrative

AV-disintermediation-by-Waymo bear case + Mobility MPD decel fears vs FCF-inflection + Delivery-cross-margin + Advertising-monetization compound story.

Where the Street may be wrong

• Waymo partnership expansion signals in June/July are UBER-positive not UBER-negative — Uber gets AV supply demand without capex; Street sizing this as tail-risk when it's the base case
• GB should land at ceiling of guide $54.5B (guide $53.5-55B) driven by Mobility MPD +18% YoY; adj-EBITDA likely $2.7B+ (Street $2.6B)
• Advertising Q2 run-rate crossing $1.5B annualized — first quarter of margin-accretive ad monetization becoming Bull-case material

Peer read: LYFT beat 8/1 with strong Q3 guide, LYFT stock +12%; positive read to UBER for the Mobility segment. DASH beat 8/1 on delivery segments — positive read to Uber Eats.

Reasoning

• Fundamentals: Mobility GB +18-20%, Delivery GB +15-17%, adj-EBITDA $2.7B (Street $2.6B), free cash flow $2.5B+ quarterly.
• Positioning: spot 45% below avg PT $105, YTD -12%, 42/49 = 86% Buy — skepticism from AV-fear positioning has washed out; sell-side unchanged constructive.
• Technicals: RSI 51 neutral, 3wk consolidation $70-75. Break above $75 on beat opens $80.
• Narrative: Advertising crossover + Waymo partnership expansion are two discrete positive-narrative shocks the sell side has been asking for; both likely disclosed.
• Applied lesson: PRIOR UBER call underpriced 3-stack amplifier (pre-print de-risk + GB ceiling beat + forward guide) — sized this call at +4% not +2% to correct the systematic under-call.